MODEL PERFORMANCE
Public proof for benchmark-graded team forecasts and closing-line tracked player props.
How to read this: Team forecasts are graded against benchmark numbers. Prop metrics only use rows with closing-line data. ROI stays limited until price and stake history line up cleanly across both tracks.
297
Graded Games
30d · qualifying leagues (NCAAB, NHL, MLB)
60.7%
Benchmark Win Rate
295 decisions (pushes excluded)
0
Awaiting Grade
resolved team forecasts missing benchmark grade
Not Ready
ROI Status
price and stake history not normalized
Performance View
Uses benchmark-graded rm_forecast_accuracy_v2 rows with archived forecast snapshots frozen at publish time. Confidence tiers currently cover 99.1% of graded games; 5 graded forecasts remain untiered because the archived public confidence snapshot is missing.
ROI is intentionally hidden until stake sizing and price history are normalized across the public game and prop ledgers.
New team-forecast engine changes only show up here after those forecasts are published, archived, and graded. This page does not rewrite past team history off current cache state.
Performance by Confidence Tier · Team Forecasts
Tier cards currently cover 99.1% of graded games. 5 graded forecasts remain untiered because published winner-confidence data is missing upstream.
By League · Team Forecasts
Recently Graded Team Forecasts
| Date | League | Matchup | Forecast | Closing Market | Tier | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5 | MLB | LAA vs CWS | CWS -1.5 / ML -140 | CWS -1.5 (+165) / ML -126 | B | LAA 4 - CWS 3 | L |
| May 5 | NHL | COL vs MIN | COL +2.5 / ML -210 | COL -2.5 (-176) | B+ | COL 5 - MIN 2 | L |
| May 5 | MLB | STL vs MIL | STL +1.5 | STL +1.5 (-190) / ML -106 | — | STL 6 - MIL 3 | W |
| May 5 | MLB | CHC vs CIN | CHC -1.5 / ML -220 | CHC ML -357 | B | CHC 5 - CIN 4 | W |
| May 5 | MLB | ARI vs PIT | ARI -1.5 / ML -142 | ARI ML -400 | B | ARI 9 - PIT 0 | W |
| May 5 | MLB | MIA vs BAL | MIA -3.5 / ML -165 | -- | B | MIA 7 - BAL 9 | L |
| May 5 | MLB | PHI vs OAK | PHI -1.5 / ML -190 | PHI -1.5 (-275) | B | PHI 9 - OAK 1 | W |
| May 6 | MLB | COL vs NYM | COL +1.5 / ML -250 | COL +1.5 (-115) / ML +140 | B | COL 2 - NYM 4 | L |
| May 5 | MLB | KC vs CLE | CLE -1.5 / ML -145 | CLE -1.5 (+134) / ML -167 | B | KC 6 - CLE 2 | L |
| May 5 | NBA | OKC vs LAL | OKC -12.5 | OKC -12.5 (-113) | B | OKC 108 - LAL 90 | W |
| May 5 | MLB | DET vs BOS | DET -3.5 / ML -120 | -- | B | DET 3 - BOS 10 | L |
| May 5 | UCL | ARS vs ATM | ARS +1.5 / ML -170 | ARS -1.5 (+280) | B | ARS 1 - ATM 0 | W |
| May 4 | MLB | HOU vs LAD | LAD -1.5 / ML -210 | -- | B | HOU 3 - LAD 8 | W |
| May 4 | MLB | CHC vs CIN | CHC +1.5 / ML -195 | CHC +1.5 (-500) / ML +139 | B | CHC 5 - CIN 4 | W |
| May 4 | MLB | SF vs SD | SD -1.5 / ML -155 | SD -1.5 (+125) / ML -134 | B | SF 3 - SD 2 | L |
| May 4 | NBA | NYK vs PHI | PHI +30.5 / ML +320 | PHI +30.5 (-118) | B | NYK 137 - PHI 98 | L |
| May 4 | NHL | VGK vs ANA | VGK -1.5 / ML -200 | VGK -1.5 (+100) | B+ | VGK 3 - ANA 1 | W |
| May 4 | MLB | MIA vs PHI | MIA -2.5 / ML -150 | -- | B | MIA 0 - PHI 1 | L |
| May 5 | NBA | DET vs CLE | CLE +9.5 / ML -160 | CLE +9.5 (-115) / ML +400 | B | DET 111 - CLE 101 | L |
| May 5 | MLB | TB vs TOR | TB +1.5 / ML -125 | TB +1.5 (-256) / ML +210 | B | TB 5 - TOR 1 | W |
| May 4 | NBA | SAS vs MIN | SAS -5.5 / ML -420 | SAS -5.5 (-107) / ML -250 | B | SAS 102 - MIN 104 | L |
| May 4 | MLB | DET vs BOS | DET +1 / ML -145 | DET +1 (-590) | B | DET 4 - BOS 5 | L |
| May 4 | MLB | NYY vs BAL | NYY -3.5 / ML -230 | -- | B | NYY 12 - BAL 1 | W |
| May 5 | MLB | NYY vs TEX | NYY -1.5 / ML -210 | NYY -1.5 (+191) / ML -180 | B | NYY 7 - TEX 4 | W |
| May 3 | MLB | LAA vs NYM | LAA -3.5 / ML -142 | -- | B | LAA 1 - NYM 5 | L |
| May 3 | NHL | COL vs MIN | COL -1.5 / ML -205 | COL -2.5 (-147) | B+ | COL 9 - MIN 6 | W |
| May 3 | MLB | STL vs LAD | LAD -2.1 / ML -155 | -- | B | STL 1 - LAD 4 | W |
| May 3 | NBA | CLE vs TOR | TOR +13.5 / ML +195 | TOR +13.5 (-117) | B | CLE 114 - TOR 102 | W |
| May 4 | EPL | CHE vs NFO | NFO +2.5 / ML +320 | NFO -2.5 (-172) | B | CHE 1 - NFO 3 | W |
| May 4 | Serie A | CRE vs LAZ | CRE -0.5 / ML -125 | CRE -0.5 (-127) | B+ | CRE 1 - LAZ 2 | L |
| May 4 | EPL | EVE vs MCI | MCI +1.5 / ML -200 | MCI +1.5 (-1487) | B | EVE 3 - MCI 3 | W |
| May 4 | NHL | CAR vs PHI | CAR -1.5 / ML -260 | CAR -1.5 (+205) / ML -180 | B | CAR 3 - PHI 2 | L |
| May 3 | MLB | SEA vs KC | SEA -2.5 / ML -120 | -- | B | SEA 1 - KC 4 | L |
| May 3 | MLB | MIA vs PHI | MIA -1.7 / ML -120 | -- | B | MIA 2 - PHI 7 | L |
| May 3 | MLB | WSH vs MIL | MIL -1.5 / ML -150 | -- | B | WSH 3 - MIL 2 | L |
| May 3 | MLB | SD vs CWS | CWS +1.5 / ML -135 | CWS +1.5 (-478) | B | SD 4 - CWS 3 | L |
| May 3 | MLB | COL vs ATL | ATL -2.6 / ML -178 | -- | B | COL 6 - ATL 11 | W |
| May 4 | Serie A | ASR vs FIO | FIO +1.5 / ML +350 | FIO +1.5 (+1326) | B+ | ASR 4 - FIO 0 | L |
| May 3 | NHL | BUF vs BOS | BUF -1.5 / ML -110 | -- | B | BUF 4 - BOS 1 | W |
| May 4 | La Liga | SEV vs RSO | RSO +1.5 / ML -125 | RSO +1.5 (-1087) | B | SEV 1 - RSO 0 | W |
| May 3 | MLB | DET vs TEX | TEX +1.5 / ML +110 | TEX +1.5 (-208) / ML +105 | B | DET 5 - TEX 1 | W |
| May 3 | WNBA | DAL vs LVA | LVA +19.5 / ML -240 | LVA +19.5 (-115) / ML +838 | B+ | DAL 101 - LVA 84 | W |
| May 2 | MLB | LAA vs NYM | LAA +1.5 / ML -140 | LAA +1.5 (-165) / ML +105 | B | LAA 4 - NYM 3 | W |
| May 3 | Ligue 1 | AJA vs ANG | ANG +2.5 / ML +420 | ANG +2.5 (+773) | B+ | AJA 3 - ANG 1 | W |
| May 3 | La Liga | BET vs OVI | OVI +1.5 / ML +420 | OVI +1.5 (+1147) | B+ | BET 3 - OVI 0 | L |
| May 3 | Serie A | BOL vs CAG | CAG PK / ML +360 | CAG PK (+180) | B | BOL 0 - CAG 0 | P |
| May 3 | EPL | BOU vs CRY | CRY -0.5 / ML +380 | CRY +2.5 (-290) | B | BOU 3 - CRY 0 | W |
| May 2 | EPL | BOU vs CRY | BOU -0.25 / ML -118 | BOU -0.25 (-110) / ML -118 | B+ | BOU 3 - CRY 0 | W |
| May 2 | MLB | STL vs LAD | LAD -1.5 / ML -150 | LAD ML +310 | B | STL 7 - LAD 2 | L |
| May 2 | NBA | BOS vs PHI | BOS +4.5 / ML -145 | BOS +4.5 (-107) / ML +234 | B | BOS 100 - PHI 109 | L |
Rain Man's Methodology
Rain Man's Prop Intel
Rain Man's direction-agnostic prop intelligence — analyzing player performance data, matchup dynamics, and market movement across all major sports.
Rain Man's Composite
Rain Man's multi-signal composite — blending prop intelligence, AI analysis, sharp interest tracking, and closing line value projections into a published winner-confidence score, with market-confidence context shown separately when it exists.
CLV Verification
Every pick is tracked against closing lines to verify genuine edge. Positive CLV means we consistently beat the market — the gold standard of forecasting accuracy.