MODEL PERFORMANCE

Public proof for benchmark-graded team forecasts and closing-line tracked player props.

How to read this: Team forecasts are graded against benchmark numbers. Prop metrics only use rows with closing-line data. ROI stays limited until price and stake history line up cleanly across both tracks.

297

Graded Games

30d · qualifying leagues (NCAAB, NHL, MLB)

60.7%

Benchmark Win Rate

295 decisions (pushes excluded)

0

Awaiting Grade

resolved team forecasts missing benchmark grade

Not Ready

ROI Status

price and stake history not normalized

Rain Man Prop Intel: 78.6% HR | +0.04 CLV (4346)
Tracking since Feb 2026
MLB tracked since Apr 19, 2026
Serie A tracked since Mar 8, 2026
NBA tracked since Apr 19, 2026
Headline: NCAAB · NHL · MLB
Forecasts on record: 1,692
Graded forecasts: 5,940
Benchmark-graded team forecasts

Performance View

Uses benchmark-graded rm_forecast_accuracy_v2 rows with archived forecast snapshots frozen at publish time. Confidence tiers currently cover 99.1% of graded games; 5 graded forecasts remain untiered because the archived public confidence snapshot is missing.

ROI is intentionally hidden until stake sizing and price history are normalized across the public game and prop ledgers.

New team-forecast engine changes only show up here after those forecasts are published, archived, and graded. This page does not rewrite past team history off current cache state.

Performance by Confidence Tier · Team Forecasts

Tier cards currently cover 99.1% of graded games. 5 graded forecasts remain untiered because published winner-confidence data is missing upstream.

⚡⚡⚡⚡A+
Win Rate100%
Record4W - 0L
Sample4 forecasts
Small sample. Treat this tier as directional, not stable.
⚡⚡⚡A
Win Rate100%
Record5W - 0L
Sample5 forecasts
Small sample. Treat this tier as directional, not stable.
⚡⚡B+
Win Rate56.3%
Record147W - 114L - 14P
Sample275 forecasts
B
Win Rate52.3%
Record134W - 122L - 7P
Sample263 forecasts

By League · Team Forecasts

NHL
Graded148
Win Rate62.6%
MLB
Since Apr 19, 2026
Graded133
Win Rate56.8%
Untiered2
NBA
Since Apr 19, 2026
Graded44
Win Rate43.2%
Serie A
Since Mar 8, 2026
Graded43
Win Rate48.6%
La Liga
Graded41
Win Rate50%
Untiered1
EPL
Graded41
Win Rate52.5%
Untiered1
Ligue 1
Graded37
Win Rate41.2%
Untiered1
Bundesliga
Graded32
Win Rate46.4%
NCAAB
Graded16
Win Rate75%
A+ Rate100%
A+ Sample4
WNBA
Graded9
Win Rate66.7%
UCL
Graded8
Win Rate62.5%

Recently Graded Team Forecasts

DateLeagueMatchupForecastClosing MarketTierResultOutcome
May 5MLBLAA vs CWSCWS -1.5 / ML -140CWS -1.5 (+165) / ML -126BLAA 4 - CWS 3L
May 5NHLCOL vs MINCOL +2.5 / ML -210COL -2.5 (-176)B+COL 5 - MIN 2L
May 5MLBSTL vs MILSTL +1.5STL +1.5 (-190) / ML -106STL 6 - MIL 3W
May 5MLBCHC vs CINCHC -1.5 / ML -220CHC ML -357BCHC 5 - CIN 4W
May 5MLBARI vs PITARI -1.5 / ML -142ARI ML -400BARI 9 - PIT 0W
May 5MLBMIA vs BALMIA -3.5 / ML -165--BMIA 7 - BAL 9L
May 5MLBPHI vs OAKPHI -1.5 / ML -190PHI -1.5 (-275)BPHI 9 - OAK 1W
May 6MLBCOL vs NYMCOL +1.5 / ML -250COL +1.5 (-115) / ML +140BCOL 2 - NYM 4L
May 5MLBKC vs CLECLE -1.5 / ML -145CLE -1.5 (+134) / ML -167BKC 6 - CLE 2L
May 5NBAOKC vs LALOKC -12.5OKC -12.5 (-113)BOKC 108 - LAL 90W
May 5MLBDET vs BOSDET -3.5 / ML -120--BDET 3 - BOS 10L
May 5UCLARS vs ATMARS +1.5 / ML -170ARS -1.5 (+280)BARS 1 - ATM 0W
May 4MLBHOU vs LADLAD -1.5 / ML -210--BHOU 3 - LAD 8W
May 4MLBCHC vs CINCHC +1.5 / ML -195CHC +1.5 (-500) / ML +139BCHC 5 - CIN 4W
May 4MLBSF vs SDSD -1.5 / ML -155SD -1.5 (+125) / ML -134BSF 3 - SD 2L
May 4NBANYK vs PHIPHI +30.5 / ML +320PHI +30.5 (-118)BNYK 137 - PHI 98L
May 4NHLVGK vs ANAVGK -1.5 / ML -200VGK -1.5 (+100)B+VGK 3 - ANA 1W
May 4MLBMIA vs PHIMIA -2.5 / ML -150--BMIA 0 - PHI 1L
May 5NBADET vs CLECLE +9.5 / ML -160CLE +9.5 (-115) / ML +400BDET 111 - CLE 101L
May 5MLBTB vs TORTB +1.5 / ML -125TB +1.5 (-256) / ML +210BTB 5 - TOR 1W
May 4NBASAS vs MINSAS -5.5 / ML -420SAS -5.5 (-107) / ML -250BSAS 102 - MIN 104L
May 4MLBDET vs BOSDET +1 / ML -145DET +1 (-590)BDET 4 - BOS 5L
May 4MLBNYY vs BALNYY -3.5 / ML -230--BNYY 12 - BAL 1W
May 5MLBNYY vs TEXNYY -1.5 / ML -210NYY -1.5 (+191) / ML -180BNYY 7 - TEX 4W
May 3MLBLAA vs NYMLAA -3.5 / ML -142--BLAA 1 - NYM 5L
May 3NHLCOL vs MINCOL -1.5 / ML -205COL -2.5 (-147)B+COL 9 - MIN 6W
May 3MLBSTL vs LADLAD -2.1 / ML -155--BSTL 1 - LAD 4W
May 3NBACLE vs TORTOR +13.5 / ML +195TOR +13.5 (-117)BCLE 114 - TOR 102W
May 4EPLCHE vs NFONFO +2.5 / ML +320NFO -2.5 (-172)BCHE 1 - NFO 3W
May 4Serie ACRE vs LAZCRE -0.5 / ML -125CRE -0.5 (-127)B+CRE 1 - LAZ 2L
May 4EPLEVE vs MCIMCI +1.5 / ML -200MCI +1.5 (-1487)BEVE 3 - MCI 3W
May 4NHLCAR vs PHICAR -1.5 / ML -260CAR -1.5 (+205) / ML -180BCAR 3 - PHI 2L
May 3MLBSEA vs KCSEA -2.5 / ML -120--BSEA 1 - KC 4L
May 3MLBMIA vs PHIMIA -1.7 / ML -120--BMIA 2 - PHI 7L
May 3MLBWSH vs MILMIL -1.5 / ML -150--BWSH 3 - MIL 2L
May 3MLBSD vs CWSCWS +1.5 / ML -135CWS +1.5 (-478)BSD 4 - CWS 3L
May 3MLBCOL vs ATLATL -2.6 / ML -178--BCOL 6 - ATL 11W
May 4Serie AASR vs FIOFIO +1.5 / ML +350FIO +1.5 (+1326)B+ASR 4 - FIO 0L
May 3NHLBUF vs BOSBUF -1.5 / ML -110--BBUF 4 - BOS 1W
May 4La LigaSEV vs RSORSO +1.5 / ML -125RSO +1.5 (-1087)BSEV 1 - RSO 0W
May 3MLBDET vs TEXTEX +1.5 / ML +110TEX +1.5 (-208) / ML +105BDET 5 - TEX 1W
May 3WNBADAL vs LVALVA +19.5 / ML -240LVA +19.5 (-115) / ML +838B+DAL 101 - LVA 84W
May 2MLBLAA vs NYMLAA +1.5 / ML -140LAA +1.5 (-165) / ML +105BLAA 4 - NYM 3W
May 3Ligue 1AJA vs ANGANG +2.5 / ML +420ANG +2.5 (+773)B+AJA 3 - ANG 1W
May 3La LigaBET vs OVIOVI +1.5 / ML +420OVI +1.5 (+1147)B+BET 3 - OVI 0L
May 3Serie ABOL vs CAGCAG PK / ML +360CAG PK (+180)BBOL 0 - CAG 0P
May 3EPLBOU vs CRYCRY -0.5 / ML +380CRY +2.5 (-290)BBOU 3 - CRY 0W
May 2EPLBOU vs CRYBOU -0.25 / ML -118BOU -0.25 (-110) / ML -118B+BOU 3 - CRY 0W
May 2MLBSTL vs LADLAD -1.5 / ML -150LAD ML +310BSTL 7 - LAD 2L
May 2NBABOS vs PHIBOS +4.5 / ML -145BOS +4.5 (-107) / ML +234BBOS 100 - PHI 109L
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Rain Man's Methodology

Rain Man's Prop Intel

Rain Man's direction-agnostic prop intelligence — analyzing player performance data, matchup dynamics, and market movement across all major sports.

Rain Man's Composite

Rain Man's multi-signal composite — blending prop intelligence, AI analysis, sharp interest tracking, and closing line value projections into a published winner-confidence score, with market-confidence context shown separately when it exists.

CLV Verification

Every pick is tracked against closing lines to verify genuine edge. Positive CLV means we consistently beat the market — the gold standard of forecasting accuracy.